After the counting of postal ballots, which initially gave the NDA a comfortable lead, the situation shifted in favor of the Opposition as the counting of electronic voting machine (EVM) ballots began. Early trends in Bihar are following expected patterns, with the NDA experiencing a decline from their 2019 peak of 39 out of 40 seats, while the INDIA bloc is showing improvement from their previous dismal performance of winning only one seat. Despite all exit polls predicting an NDA landslide for a third consecutive term, some dip in Bihar was anticipated due to tough local realities and the RJD’s aggressive campaigning on issues like poverty and unemployment. This was countered by the BJP’s focused efforts in Bihar, including 19 public rallies and road shows by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and contributions from other senior BJP leaders.
By 9:30 am, the NDA was leading in nearly 30 out of the 38 seats for which trends had started to emerge, while the Opposition was leading in seven to eight seats. This situation could change as counting progresses, with a clearer picture expected after the halfway mark. In Gaya, NDA alliance partner HAM-S leader Jitan Ram Manjhi maintained a comfortable lead of over 15,000 votes. Early trends showed some prominent NDA candidates, like Union ministers Giriraj Singh from Begusarai and Nityanand Rai from Ujiarpur, trailing, though Giriraj Singh later regained the lead. RJD’s Rohini Acharya, daughter of Lalu Prasad, was behind BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy in Saran, while in Pataliputra, Lalu Prasad’s daughter Misa Bharti faced a close contest against BJP’s Ramkripal Yadav. Misa initially led, but BJP leaders remained hopeful for a turnaround. JD-U’s Rajiv Ranjan, also known as Lalan Singh, maintained an early lead in Munger.
From Hajipur, Chirag Paswan of the LJP-R maintained an early lead, and in Samastipur, the youngest candidate, Shambhavi Choudhary, was in a tight race with Congress’s Sunny Hazari, eventually leading by over 7,000 votes. With 39 seats in its 2019 tally, the NDA had little room to improve, and analysts focused on how much their tally might decrease and whether they could maintain their 2014 count of 31 seats. “Bihar was always going to be tough for the BJP. These are early trends. The results will show if the election was influenced by the caste survey or anti-incumbency factor. In Bihar, the RJD is the main force around which the INDIA bloc revolves, but the BJP and JD-U together form a strong coalition,” said political analyst DM Diwakar.
